Thursday, April 16^th, 2026

US, ISRAEL, IRAN War Disrupts U.S. ENERGY Landscape

“BIG” changes are happening across the ENERGY landscape due to the US, ISRAEL, IRAN war, and it's not just the prices jumping at the pump…

Those, too, have been climbing higher with the average price for a gallon of gas now standing at $4.09, according to AAA, UP 37% since “OPERATION; EPIC FURY” began on February 28^th, 2026.

A barrel of WTI (CL1:COM) has INCREASED by the same percentage, climbing from $68 to the current $93/bbl.

The U.S. has nearly transformed into a “NET” CRUDE EXPORTER for the first time since WORLD WAR II!!!

Exports last week climbed to 5.2M barrels per day, the highest level in seven (7) months, and imports were slightly above that level, with the gap narrowing to just 66,000 bpd. The U.S. still imports a “MASSIVE” amount of crude since U.S. refineries were set up decades ago to process imported heavier “SOUR” grades, rather than the domestic light “SWEET” crude that has been gushing since the FRACKING revolution in the 2000s.

ATTACKS on REGIONAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE and the CLOSURE of the STRAIT of HORMUZ led to the loss of 10.1M bpd of supply in March (2026), according to the INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA), which called it the “LARGEST OIL SUPPLY DISRUPTION IN HISTORY”.

U.S. crude benchmark WTI is now gaining prominence as a more secure alternative to MIDDLE EASTERN barrels, with traders avoiding “CONFLICT ZONES” and refiners looking for alternative sources.

GLOBAL OIL companies are set to generate “BILLIONS” of dollars in “PROFIT” from the current situation, as well as U.S. giants like ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP)!!!

While they are generating more “PROFIT” per barrel, it is still a "HIGH PRICE”/”HIGH RISK” environment, where SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS can wipe out gains, as well as disruptions preventing the PHYSICAL DELIVERY of cargoes and INCREASED “OPERATIONAL” and/or “HEDGING” COSTS.

The return of “CASH” to shareholders might be a bigger focus than massive production spikes, so let’s pay close attention when the ENERGY “BIG BOYS” report EARNINGS (ERs) at the end of this month (April 2026).

BULL/BEAR WE DON’T CARE…

YOU, ME, WE our “BELOVED” ATWWI FAMILY will be poised to monetize whatever situation/outcome occurs and get “P.A.I.D.”!!!

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Tuesday, February 24^th, 2026

WATER Bills Are INCREASING Faster Than You Think!!!

Aging pipes, climate pressure, and INFRASTRUCTURE costs hit households next.

Most families keep an eye on groceries, insurance, and mortgage payments. WATER is the bill that often gets ignored—until a rate notice arrives and the new price is already locked in.

The warning sign is right in the inflation data: water, sewer, and trash services are UP about 4.7% year over year, according to the latest CPI category table—and unlike many expenses, this is a cost you can't substitute away…

Why This Matters

WATER is a “DISTINCT”, “UNAVOIDABLE” cost driver because it's tied to PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and PUBLIC HEALTH rules. Pipes, pumps, treatment plants, lab testing, and emergency crews don't get cheaper just because households conserve. A large share of the cost is “FIXED”, so utilities still need steady revenue even when usage falls.

The second driver is FINANCING…

When systems age, repairs turn into “REPLACEMENT CYCLES”—and those projects are usually paid for over decades. In plain terms, your monthly bill becomes the “REPAYMENT PLAN” for capital upgrades, plus the ongoing cost of running a safe system.

That's why water increases often arrive "QUIETLY”

They are approved locally—through a rate study, a utility board vote, or a city council agenda item—then they COMPOUND year after year.

Big providers are now publicly mapping out long spending runways that tend to translate into future rate filings…

A major regulated utility, for example, recently laid out a $46–$48 billion, 10-year upgrade plan in a new report on large-scale INFRASTRUCTURE investment—the kind of capital program that typically supports higher customer charges over time.

At the municipal level, the same math shows up as multi-year "RATE PATHS”…

The San Antonio, Texas utility has proposed increases that would push the typical bill materially HIGHER by 2029, as detailed in a recent local breakdown of a multi-year rate proposal—a clear example of how "SMALL ANNUAL INCREASES” can become a meaningful household line item.

New industrial demand is also adding pressure. With DATA CENTERS expanding rapidly, Microsoft (MSFT) announced steps aimed at preventing the public from absorbing added utility burdens, described in a recent report on DATA CENTER cost and WATER commitments.

Treat WATER like property taxes and insurance: a “MUST-PAY” expense that tends to INCREASE with INFRASTRUCTURE “REALITY”, not personal preference.

Build a modest "UTILITY BUFFER” into your budget—and once a year, read your utility's RATE NOTICE the way you read an insurance renewal, because the “QUIET” bills are often the ones that “BITE” hardest.

PEACE & BLESSINGS,

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Thursday, February 5^th, 2026

“CLEVER” Way To Monetize Recent U.S/India Trade Deal

Warren Buffett is fond of saying that when you “BUY” shares of a company, you should do so as if the stock market will be “CLOSED” for the next five (5) years. Point being, if you like the LONG-TERM fundamentals of a business, then what it is trading for in the near term is irrelevant.

The other advantage to such an approach is that it would prevent you from selling your shares no matter what happens during that span. Five (5) years ago, the global economy was in disarray after the coronavirus pandemic upended the economy and severely disrupted global supply chains.

Had you bought stock a year or two (2) prior to that, you may have sold your shares and put your money in a savings account earning almost no interest. But had you been forced to hang onto it until now, you would most likely be sitting on a large gain.

That analogy does not just apply to individual businesses. I believe it is even more helpful when thinking about INTERNATIONAL investing. Outside of the United States, most REGIONAL stock markets go through long cycles of “BOOM” and “BUST”.

For that reason, many investors eschew investing OVERSEAS. It is difficult to rationalize tying up investment capital in something that isn’t moving. Especially when the S&P 500 Index is seemingly growing by DOUBLE-DIGITS every year.

I believe now may be an opportune time for YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY to move some money into an INTERNATIONAL market that has not gotten much investor attention…

During the past year, the iShares MSCA India ETF (INDA) has appreciated LESS than 5 percent while the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is UP more than 15 percent.

Until this week, WALL STREET wasn’t showing much interest in INDIA. The Trump administration’s “FIXATION” with GREENLAND during the WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM in Davos, Switzerland in January (2026) had all eyes on EUROPE.

BUT, that all changed at the start of this week when INDIA PRIME MINISTER NARENDRA MODI had a long phone call with the White House…

Afterwards, TRUMP announced an “AGREEMENT” that would result in both countries LOWERING their reciprocal IMPORT TARIFFS on each other, provided INDIA stops BUYING OIL from RUSSIA and purchases it from the USA (or VENEZUELA) instead.

Purportedly, there are additional “SIDE DEALS” in the works encompassing AGRICULTURE, TECHNOLOGY, and MANUFACTURING. It remains to be seen if the two (2) countries can finish the job, but if they do then INDIA may suddenly find itself no longer sitting at the “KIDDIE TABLE” by the time this THANKSGIVING comes around.

There is a lot of room for ECONOMIC GROWTH in INDIA. It now has the LARGEST population in the world, growing by nearly one (1) percent last year (2025) while China’s population SHRANK.

Its MEDIA AGE of 29.2 is eleven (11) years YOUNGER than CHINA’s, and its FERTILITY RATE of 1.9 is nearly TWICE that of CHINA.

It has a relatively small middle-class population, which bodes well for consumer spending as more INDIAN families raise their standard of living.

In short, all the pieces are in place for a SUSTAINED ECONOMIC “BOOM” in INDIA that could last DECADES!!!

All the country needs is something to get it started, which this week’s “PRELIMINARY” TRADE AGREEMENT may accomplish.

I do not suggest “BUYING” INDIVIDUAL companies in INDIA to capitalize/monetize this opportunity. Its economy is a “WITCH’s BREW” of CAPITALISM, CRONYISM, and OLIGARCHISM rolled into one.

Instead, I suggest taking a “BUCKET” approach by owning the ENTIRE stock market via INDA. Its top holdings include that country’s dominant players in FINANCE, TECHNOLOGY, and MANUFACTURING.

You can think of those businesses as INDIA’s stock market equivalent of what the “MAGNIFICENT 7” TECH STOCKS are to the United States…

They are the engine that drives its economy, and this week they just got a “HUGH” BOOST from an unlikely source.

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Monday, January 19^th, 2026
How To Get "P.A.I.D." From Greenland's Mineral Rights: The Tip of the U.S. “P.A.I.D.” Iceberg

Recently, I discussed "How To Get “P.A.I.D.” From The Recent U.S. Takeover of Venezuela." In that “WIZ” DAILY JOURNAL article, I suggested investing in COMMODITY PRODUCERS since they will be the ultimate beneficiaries of consolidation in the OIL and MINING industries. Fewer suppliers mean less competition, which should give producers more control over wholesale prices.

To be clear, I was not opining on the “LEGALITY” or “MORALITY” of that event…

From what I can discern, most world leaders agree that something needed to be done. Whether or not this was the “RIGHT WAY” to do it is up for debate, which is outside my purview as an trader/investor/investment analyst.

That said, this situation is far from over…

In fact, it has only just begun!!!

Regardless of how you or I or anyone else feels about, it is going to have repercussions that radiate around the world and decades into the future…

As traders/investors, YOU, ME, the “BELOVED” ATWWI FAMILY should factor that into our portfolio decisions even if we “STRENUOUSLY” object to the manner in which it came about.

RISK Management

Making a portfolio “ADJUSTMENT” to this event is not the same thing as “PROFITEERING”. MANAGING RISK is a core tenet of portfolio construction. You may disagree with what occurred while making “ADJUSTMENTS” in response to it to MANAGE RISK at the same time.

From a FINANCIAL perspective, I view this no differently than responding to previous "BLACK SWAN" events such as the CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC. Whether or not the COVID-19 outbreak was an intentional act or a horrible mistake is irrelevant from an INVESTMENT perspective. The bottom line is that it happened and ignoring it won't change the way in which it may affect our portfolio(s).

That is why I advocate taking a “PROACTIVE” approach to these types of events. This is not profiting from someone else's misery. It is MANAGING RISK to protect your assets from a new variable that previously did not exist. In that regard, this is no different than HEDGING your portfolio against other GEOPOLITICAL events that can change longstanding relationships among and within asset classes.

A New “THREAT”

Now, a new “THREAT” to the GLOBAL COMMODITY markets has emerged. The White House has stated its desire to wrest control of Greenland's extensive METALS and MINERAL RESERVES “BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY”, including MILITARY FORCE if a FINANCIAL deal cannot be made.

For the record, many object to “FORCIBLY” taking assets from a country with a “LEGITIMATELY” elected leader that poses no direct “THREAT” to the United States.

In that respect, the Greenland “SITUATION” is quite different from the circumstances that led up to the Venezuela incursion.

Many, hope the “TAKEOVER” of Greenland doesn't happen, but I'm NOT going to ignore it for that reason. If the U.S. gains control of Greenland's most valuable COMMODITY RESERVES, then that will trigger “REPERCUSSIONS” in the GLOBAL FINANCIAL markets for years to come.

Actualize/Monetize the Sector

In that case, having exposure to METALS and MINERALS in our portfolio(s) is one way to HEDGE against INFLATION. Those materials are integral to the production of a wide array of CONSUMER and INDUSTRIAL products. If the cost of acquiring those materials increases, so too will the price of the products that use them.

The easiest way to do that is to own shares of a mutual fund such as the State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME). The fund’s objective is "to provide exposure to the metals & mining segment of the S&P TMI, which comprises the following sub-industries: Aluminum, Coal & Consumable Fuels, Copper, Diversified Metals & Mining, Gold, Precious Metals & Minerals, Silver, and Steel."

The fund's assets are currently allocated 32 percent to steel, 20 percent to coal & combustibles, 16 percent gold, 9 percent aluminum, 5 percent silver, 5 percent copper, and 13 percent diversified metals and mining.

Recently, the fund's share price INCREASED 10 percent as Wall Street immediately recognized the implications of the Venezuela “TAKEOVER”.

Many think the White House will bow to international pressure and back away from its “THREAT” to use MILITARY FORCE to obtain Greenland's HARD ASSETS…

In that case, this fund could just as quickly give back the gain(s) that it recently generated…

HOWEVER, if the Trump administration makes good on its promise to obtain those assets “BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY”, then the recent gain(s) could just be the tip of the U.S. “P.A.I.D.” ICEBERG!!!

PEACE & BLESSINGS,

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Monday, January 12^th, 2026

How To Get “P.A.I.D.” From The Recent U.S. Takeover of Venezuela

A week ago, Wall Street wasn't giving serious thought to the possibility of a “FORCED” regime change in Venezuela to gain control of its vast oil reserves. Most people thought the United States would use the threat of military intervention to renegotiate what had become an untenable situation.

However, the United States removed Venezuela’s long-standing political leader, abruptly reopening questions traders/investors have not seriously asked in years…

Chief among them:

Could Venezuela’s oil sector finally begin to recover, and if so, which companies stand to benefit???

It’s an important question, because on paper Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves of any country.

This analysis is certainly NOT an endorsement or celebration of those events. It is a response to trader/investor “REALITY”. When geopolitical shifts occur in a country with the WORLD’s LARGEST “PROVEN” OIL RESERVES, capital markets immediately begin assessing EXPOSURE, RISK, and OPPORTUNITY!!!

Venezuela’s oil industry did not collapse overnight, and it will not recover overnight either…

To OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND what might come next — and which companies are positioned to benefit if policy and sanctions shift — YOU, ME, WE the “BELOVED” ATWWI FAMILY need to OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND why Venezuela’s oil sector “FAILED” in the first place AND which parts of that “FAILURE” are REVERSIBLE…

The story begins long before the recent invasion and long before U.S. sanctions. The “TRUE” turning point came nearly two (2) decades ago…

In 2007 the Venezuelan government forced foreign operators into “MINORITY” positions and seized assets from companies that refused the new terms.

ConocoPhillips (COP) and ExxonMobil (XOM) were among the most prominent companies affected.

These were not “CONVENTIONAL” oil fields…

The Orinoco Belt consists largely of EXTRA-HEAVY CRUDE, requiring advanced reservoir management, steady diluent supply, and multi-billion-dollar upgraders to convert the “TAR-LIKE” oil into usable blends.

When these companies left, Venezuela lost far more than “CAPITAL”...

It lost ENGINEERING DISCIPLINE, PROJECT MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS, and OPERATIONAL EXPERTISE.

Venezuela’s state?owned oil company, PDVSA, inherited the “ASSETS”, but not the “CAPABILITES”!!!

Production did not collapse immediately. For several years, PDVSA continued operating on the momentum of systems it did not fully OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND.

BUT, the damage was already embedded…

The DECLINE started shortly after the 2007 expropriation, but STEEP DECLINE became visible (2007:3.3 million bpd* to 2025:900 thousand bpd*) in LONG-TERM PRODUCTION CHARTS around 2015—well before U.S. sanctions targeted PDVSA in 2019. That timing is “CRITICAL” for YOU, ME, WE the “BELOVED” ATWWI FAMILY.

*barrels per day

Let me explain…

Beginning around 2014, PDVSA underwent political “PURGES” that stripped out much of its TECHNICAL LEADERSHIP…

MAINTENANCE BUDGETS were CUT…

COMPRESSORS and UPGRADERS fell into DISREPAIR…

SKILLED WORKERS left the country…

RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT DETERIORATED.

When OIL PRICES “COLLAPSED” in 2014, PDVSA’s “FRAGILE” FINANCES “COLLAPSED” with them…

The result was a RAPID, STRUCTURAL DECLINE IN PRODUCTION…

By the time “SANCTIONS” arrived, Venezuela’s OIL SECTOR was already in “FREEFALL”!!!

U.S. “SANCTIONS” imposed in January 2019 did not cause Venezuela’s collapse, but they did accelerate it “SIGNIFANTLY”!!!

The “SANCTIONS” cut off access to U.S. REFINERS, RESTRICTED PAYMENT CHANNELS, BLOCKED DILUENT IMPORTS, and COMPLICATED SHIPPING and INSURANCE

Thus, barrels that could have been produced suddenly had nowhere to go!!!

“SANCTIONS” did not “BREAK” Venezuela’s oil industry. PDVSA’s “MISMANAGEMENT” did and “SANCTIONS” made any recovery far more DIFFICULT…

This distinction matters, because “SANCTIONS” are also the part of the DECLINE that could REVERSE most quickly.

Now, the GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS are confronting two (2) “REALITIES” that it was not grappling with prior to the “INVASION”:

(1) the United States is the “DE FACTO OVERLORD” of a country with the LARGEST OIL RESERVES IN THE WORLD, and

(2) the possibility that the U.S. may expand its reach over other valuable commodities by making a similar move on Greenland to gain control of its vast reserves of RARE EARTH METALS.

If Venezuela’s oil sector begins to reopen, Chevron (CVX) is uniquely positioned to benefit.

Chevron (CVX) is the ONLY major U.S. oil company that never fully exited Venezuela. Through a series of U.S. Treasury licenses, it maintained joint ventures, kept personnel on the ground, and preserved operational continuity while other Western firms left.

That continuity is a major competitive advantage… Chevron (CVX):

• still has active assets and infrastructure
• knows the reservoirs and upgrading systems
• has established relationships with PDVSA
• is already exporting Venezuelan crude under U.S. authorization

For YOU, ME, WE the “BELOVED” ATWWI FAMILY, this makes Chevron (CVX) the CLEAREST and most IMMEDIATE “BENEFICIARY” of any Venezuelan “NORMALIZATION”. No other Western major company has ACTIVE OPERATIONS, LEGAL AUTHORIZATION, and INSTITUTIONAL KNOWLEDGE in place TODAY!!!

ConocoPhillips (COP) plays a different role…

The company was expropriated in 2007 and later won an $8.7 billion arbitration award for seized assets in the Orinoco region. The ongoing court-supervised sale of Citgo Petroleum is one of the primary avenues for recovery.

If ConocoPhillips (COP) ultimately receives MEANINGFUL COMPENSATION, or reaches a BROADER SETTLEMENT, re-engagement becomes possible. The company retains deep TECHNICAL EXPERIENCE with HEAVY OIL projects.

HOWEVER, unlike Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP) would be starting from “SCRATCH”. It has no ACTIVE OPERATIONS in Venezuela today, and its business model has changed significantly since becoming a pure-play “UPSTREAM” company after the Phillips 66 spinoff.

For YOU, ME, WE the “BELOVED” ATWWI FAMILY, ConocoPhillips (COP) represents a SECONDARY and more SPECULATIVE ANGLE, tied to LEGAL OUTCOMES and POLITICAL STABILITY rather than existing operations.

Venezuela’s OIL “COLLAPSE” was not the result of a single event. It was the cumulative effect of EXPROPRIATIONS, LOSS OF EXPERTISE, PDVSA’s INTERNAL BREAKDOWN, and subsequently the impact of “SANCTIONS”.

The investment implications are clear:

• Chevron (CVX) is the “PRIMARY” BENEFICIARY, with existing operations and the ability to scale quickly
• ConocoPhillips (COP) could benefit, but only if legal claims are resolved and political “RISK” declines
• A full-sector recovery would require political stability, credible contracts, and sustained capital — none of which should be “ASSUMED”

For now, Chevron (CVX) remains the company YOU, ME, WE the “BELOVED” ATWWI FAMILY should watch most closely. It has the ASSETS, EXPERIENCE, and REGULATORY FRAMEWORK to move FIRST if Venezuela’s oil sector takes even a small step toward “NORMALIZATION”

That continuity is a major competitive advantage. Since Chevron (CVX) still has “ACTIVE” ASSETS and INFRASTRUCTURE and is already EXPORTING Venezuelan CRUDE under U.S. authorization, it does not need to “RE-ENTER” Venezuela…

It simply needs to “SCALE UP”!!!

“KNEE-JERK” Reaction

As it is apt to do, Wall Street reacted by bidding “UP” shares of CVX by five (5) percent on Monday, January 5^th, 2026. That day, TRADING VOLUME in Chevron (CVX) was more than four (4) times its AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME (ADV).

If everything goes according to plan, Chevron (CVX) should soon be able to ramp up its oil production in Venezuela at the same time many of the onerous restrictions imposed seven (7) years ago by the first Trump administration are relaxed or eliminated…

NOTE: HIGHER SALES REVENUES COMBINED WITH LOWER PRODUCTION COSTS EQUAL MORE PROFITS.

HOWEVER, that type of “KNEE-JERK” reaction to an “UNEXPECTED” event usually turns out to be WRONG!!!

That's because a “SEISMIC” GEOPOLITICAL event of this magnitude has “ENORMOUS” REPERCUSSIONS, some of which cannot be foreseen.

When the United States used its military power to remove the leader of a “SOVEREIGN” NATION and gain control of its NATURAL RESOURCES, a message was sent to the rest of the world…

“MIGHT MAKES RIGHT” and right now the “MIGHTIEST” nation in the world wants what other nations have in the way of PETROLEUM and PRECIOUS METALS.

I don't know exactly how this latest “GAMBIT” by the White House will play out, but I do know of a way to get “P.A.I.D.” from it

The Fidelity Global Commodity Stock Fund (FFGCX) is a “BELLWEATHER” position that owns shares of companies that produce OIL, MINE FOR METALS, and GROW CROPS.

This fund's top ten (10) holdings include Chevron (CVX) along with Exxon Mobil (XOM), Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM), and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM). Its single largest holding is Corteva (CTVA), which provides SEED and CROP PROTECTION for farmers.

In the past, I have utilized this fund as an “HEDGE” against INFLATION.

NOTE: WHEN THE PRICES OF COMMODITIES RISE QUICKLY, PROFIT MARGINS FOR THE COMPANIES THAT PRODUCE COMMODITIES INCREASE BECAUSE THEIR OPERATING COSTS ARE MAINLY FIXED.

Now, I view this fund (FFGCX) as a way to monetize renewed U.S. “IMPERIALISM” to gain control of NATURAL RESOURCES outside its national boundaries.

Today, OIL in Venezuela in play….

Soon, it may be PRECIOUS METALS in Greenland…

Later, it could be FOOD CROPS in some other part of the world.

What just happened in Venezuela could turn out to have a LARGER impact on the GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM in the long run than the outbreak of the CORONAVIRUS “PANDEMIC” six (6) years ago. It could also end up changing the “DYNAMICS” of the COMMODITY markets for a lot longer than that.

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.