Monday, January 12^th, 2026

How To Get “P.A.I.D.” From The Recent U.S. Takeover of Venezuela

A week ago, Wall Street wasn't giving serious thought to the possibility of a “FORCED” regime change in Venezuela to gain control of its vast oil reserves. Most people thought the United States would use the threat of military intervention to renegotiate what had become an untenable situation.

However, the United States removed Venezuela’s long-standing political leader, abruptly reopening questions traders/investors have not seriously asked in years…

Chief among them:

Could Venezuela’s oil sector finally begin to recover, and if so, which companies stand to benefit???

It’s an important question, because on paper Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves of any country.

This analysis is certainly NOT an endorsement or celebration of those events. It is a response to trader/investor “REALITY”. When geopolitical shifts occur in a country with the WORLD’s LARGEST “PROVEN” OIL RESERVES, capital markets immediately begin assessing EXPOSURE, RISK, and OPPORTUNITY!!!

Venezuela’s oil industry did not collapse overnight, and it will not recover overnight either…

To OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND what might come next — and which companies are positioned to benefit if policy and sanctions shift — YOU, ME, WE the “BELOVED” ATWWI FAMILY need to OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND why Venezuela’s oil sector “FAILED” in the first place AND which parts of that “FAILURE” are REVERSIBLE…

The story begins long before the recent invasion and long before U.S. sanctions. The “TRUE” turning point came nearly two (2) decades ago…

In 2007 the Venezuelan government forced foreign operators into “MINORITY” positions and seized assets from companies that refused the new terms.

ConocoPhillips (COP) and ExxonMobil (XOM) were among the most prominent companies affected.

These were not “CONVENTIONAL” oil fields…

The Orinoco Belt consists largely of EXTRA-HEAVY CRUDE, requiring advanced reservoir management, steady diluent supply, and multi-billion-dollar upgraders to convert the “TAR-LIKE” oil into usable blends.

When these companies left, Venezuela lost far more than “CAPITAL”...

It lost ENGINEERING DISCIPLINE, PROJECT MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS, and OPERATIONAL EXPERTISE.

Venezuela’s state?owned oil company, PDVSA, inherited the “ASSETS”, but not the “CAPABILITES”!!!

Production did not collapse immediately. For several years, PDVSA continued operating on the momentum of systems it did not fully OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND.

BUT, the damage was already embedded…

The DECLINE started shortly after the 2007 expropriation, but STEEP DECLINE became visible (2007:3.3 million bpd* to 2025:900 thousand bpd*) in LONG-TERM PRODUCTION CHARTS around 2015—well before U.S. sanctions targeted PDVSA in 2019. That timing is “CRITICAL” for YOU, ME, WE the “BELOVED” ATWWI FAMILY.

*barrels per day

Let me explain…

Beginning around 2014, PDVSA underwent political “PURGES” that stripped out much of its TECHNICAL LEADERSHIP…

MAINTENANCE BUDGETS were CUT…

COMPRESSORS and UPGRADERS fell into DISREPAIR…

SKILLED WORKERS left the country…

RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT DETERIORATED.

When OIL PRICES “COLLAPSED” in 2014, PDVSA’s “FRAGILE” FINANCES “COLLAPSED” with them…

The result was a RAPID, STRUCTURAL DECLINE IN PRODUCTION…

By the time “SANCTIONS” arrived, Venezuela’s OIL SECTOR was already in “FREEFALL”!!!

U.S. “SANCTIONS” imposed in January 2019 did not cause Venezuela’s collapse, but they did accelerate it “SIGNIFANTLY”!!!

The “SANCTIONS” cut off access to U.S. REFINERS, RESTRICTED PAYMENT CHANNELS, BLOCKED DILUENT IMPORTS, and COMPLICATED SHIPPING and INSURANCE

Thus, barrels that could have been produced suddenly had nowhere to go!!!

“SANCTIONS” did not “BREAK” Venezuela’s oil industry. PDVSA’s “MISMANAGEMENT” did and “SANCTIONS” made any recovery far more DIFFICULT…

This distinction matters, because “SANCTIONS” are also the part of the DECLINE that could REVERSE most quickly.

Now, the GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS are confronting two (2) “REALITIES” that it was not grappling with prior to the “INVASION”:

(1) the United States is the “DE FACTO OVERLORD” of a country with the LARGEST OIL RESERVES IN THE WORLD, and

(2) the possibility that the U.S. may expand its reach over other valuable commodities by making a similar move on Greenland to gain control of its vast reserves of RARE EARTH METALS.

If Venezuela’s oil sector begins to reopen, Chevron (CVX) is uniquely positioned to benefit.

Chevron (CVX) is the ONLY major U.S. oil company that never fully exited Venezuela. Through a series of U.S. Treasury licenses, it maintained joint ventures, kept personnel on the ground, and preserved operational continuity while other Western firms left.

That continuity is a major competitive advantage… Chevron (CVX):

• still has active assets and infrastructure
• knows the reservoirs and upgrading systems
• has established relationships with PDVSA
• is already exporting Venezuelan crude under U.S. authorization

For YOU, ME, WE the “BELOVED” ATWWI FAMILY, this makes Chevron (CVX) the CLEAREST and most IMMEDIATE “BENEFICIARY” of any Venezuelan “NORMALIZATION”. No other Western major company has ACTIVE OPERATIONS, LEGAL AUTHORIZATION, and INSTITUTIONAL KNOWLEDGE in place TODAY!!!

ConocoPhillips (COP) plays a different role…

The company was expropriated in 2007 and later won an $8.7 billion arbitration award for seized assets in the Orinoco region. The ongoing court-supervised sale of Citgo Petroleum is one of the primary avenues for recovery.

If ConocoPhillips (COP) ultimately receives MEANINGFUL COMPENSATION, or reaches a BROADER SETTLEMENT, re-engagement becomes possible. The company retains deep TECHNICAL EXPERIENCE with HEAVY OIL projects.

HOWEVER, unlike Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP) would be starting from “SCRATCH”. It has no ACTIVE OPERATIONS in Venezuela today, and its business model has changed significantly since becoming a pure-play “UPSTREAM” company after the Phillips 66 spinoff.

For YOU, ME, WE the “BELOVED” ATWWI FAMILY, ConocoPhillips (COP) represents a SECONDARY and more SPECULATIVE ANGLE, tied to LEGAL OUTCOMES and POLITICAL STABILITY rather than existing operations.

Venezuela’s OIL “COLLAPSE” was not the result of a single event. It was the cumulative effect of EXPROPRIATIONS, LOSS OF EXPERTISE, PDVSA’s INTERNAL BREAKDOWN, and subsequently the impact of “SANCTIONS”.

The investment implications are clear:

• Chevron (CVX) is the “PRIMARY” BENEFICIARY, with existing operations and the ability to scale quickly
• ConocoPhillips (COP) could benefit, but only if legal claims are resolved and political “RISK” declines
• A full-sector recovery would require political stability, credible contracts, and sustained capital — none of which should be “ASSUMED”

For now, Chevron (CVX) remains the company YOU, ME, WE the “BELOVED” ATWWI FAMILY should watch most closely. It has the ASSETS, EXPERIENCE, and REGULATORY FRAMEWORK to move FIRST if Venezuela’s oil sector takes even a small step toward “NORMALIZATION”

That continuity is a major competitive advantage. Since Chevron (CVX) still has “ACTIVE” ASSETS and INFRASTRUCTURE and is already EXPORTING Venezuelan CRUDE under U.S. authorization, it does not need to “RE-ENTER” Venezuela…

It simply needs to “SCALE UP”!!!

“KNEE-JERK” Reaction

As it is apt to do, Wall Street reacted by bidding “UP” shares of CVX by five (5) percent on Monday, January 5^th, 2026. That day, TRADING VOLUME in Chevron (CVX) was more than four (4) times its AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME (ADV).

If everything goes according to plan, Chevron (CVX) should soon be able to ramp up its oil production in Venezuela at the same time many of the onerous restrictions imposed seven (7) years ago by the first Trump administration are relaxed or eliminated…

NOTE: HIGHER SALES REVENUES COMBINED WITH LOWER PRODUCTION COSTS EQUAL MORE PROFITS.

HOWEVER, that type of “KNEE-JERK” reaction to an “UNEXPECTED” event usually turns out to be WRONG!!!

That's because a “SEISMIC” GEOPOLITICAL event of this magnitude has “ENORMOUS” REPERCUSSIONS, some of which cannot be foreseen.

When the United States used its military power to remove the leader of a “SOVEREIGN” NATION and gain control of its NATURAL RESOURCES, a message was sent to the rest of the world…

“MIGHT MAKES RIGHT” and right now the “MIGHTIEST” nation in the world wants what other nations have in the way of PETROLEUM and PRECIOUS METALS.

I don't know exactly how this latest “GAMBIT” by the White House will play out, but I do know of a way to get “P.A.I.D.” from it

The Fidelity Global Commodity Stock Fund (FFGCX) is a “BELLWEATHER” position that owns shares of companies that produce OIL, MINE FOR METALS, and GROW CROPS.

This fund's top ten (10) holdings include Chevron (CVX) along with Exxon Mobil (XOM), Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM), and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM). Its single largest holding is Corteva (CTVA), which provides SEED and CROP PROTECTION for farmers.

In the past, I have utilized this fund as an “HEDGE” against INFLATION.

NOTE: WHEN THE PRICES OF COMMODITIES RISE QUICKLY, PROFIT MARGINS FOR THE COMPANIES THAT PRODUCE COMMODITIES INCREASE BECAUSE THEIR OPERATING COSTS ARE MAINLY FIXED.

Now, I view this fund (FFGCX) as a way to monetize renewed U.S. “IMPERIALISM” to gain control of NATURAL RESOURCES outside its national boundaries.

Today, OIL in Venezuela in play….

Soon, it may be PRECIOUS METALS in Greenland…

Later, it could be FOOD CROPS in some other part of the world.

What just happened in Venezuela could turn out to have a LARGER impact on the GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM in the long run than the outbreak of the CORONAVIRUS “PANDEMIC” six (6) years ago. It could also end up changing the “DYNAMICS” of the COMMODITY markets for a lot longer than that.

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Monday, January 5^th, 2026

How To Limit Early 2026 Market “RISK”

The stock market's erratic behavior over the last two months of 2025 as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). After closing above 680 on October 31, the SPY dropped under 669 just one week later. The following week it rose above 681 only to fall below 651 on November 20.

Just as quickly, the index shot back up 681 one week later and then climbed above 689 two weeks after that. The following week it fell below 675 only to rally above 690 by the end of last week. After all that zigzagging, the index had gained a little over one percent during that two-month stretch

So, what was the point of all that seemingly pointless activity???

Conflicting Economic Data

Most of that trading activity was to wash out the dirt and grime created by a sequence of conflicting and confusing economic data due to the federal government “SHUTDOWN”. During the “SHUTDOWN” we wondered if INFLATION was RISING or FALLING, as we did for the UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.

After the “SHUTDOWN” we learned both INFLATION and the UNEMPLOYMENT RATE kept RISIN from August through October (2025) but at slow enough paces not to set off “ALARM BELLS” on Wall Street.

That being the case, the FED reduced its policy rate by one-quarter of a percentage point in mid-December (2025), precisely as expected.

Recently, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) INCREASED at an annual rate of 4.3 percent during the third quarter, far above the 3.3 percent figure widely anticipated on Wall Street. Most of that GAIN was due to INCREASED consumer spending and DECREASED imports, neither of which is necessarily “HEALTHY” for the economy in the long run.

That is because both of those conditions are likely to INCREASE INFLATION down the road. Consumers are not buying more items, but they are paying more for them due to in part to recently enacted import tariffs. The fact that imports are decreasing is proof of that, even though that has the perverse effect of increasing GDP in the near term.

Interconnected Markets

All of that raises a tantalizing question heading into the new year (2026): If none of those critical data points were known two (2) months ago, why has the stock market barely budged from where it was before all that information become public???

I believe the answer to that question goes far beyond a simple explanation of how “GREED” and “FEAR” manifest itself in the form of individual investor “PSYCHOLOGY”, as many market “PUNDITS” would have you believe.

I don't believe you or I have suddenly become more “IRRATIONAL” than we usually are, nor do I think we have suddenly become less “GREEDY”...

HOWEVER, we have become more exposed to the volatility that accompanies the invisible but rapidly growing web of interconnected investment products controlled by CURRENCY TRADERS, HEDGE FUNDS, and INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS that dictate the SHORT-TERM direction of the financial markets.

To be clear, this is not a “CONSPIRACY THEORY” of any sort; each of those investors is engaging in behavior they believe will yield the greatest “RISK-ADJUSTED” return for their clients. In theory that is good for the financial markets by enhancing LIQUIDITY, which in turn should result in more accurate pricing. Which it does, EXCEPT when the amount of money being exchanged becomes so LARGE that it affects prices in other markets.

So, what can you do about it???

As an individual investor, there is nothing you can do to prevent it from happening, but you can devise a strategy to get “P.A.I.D.” from it.

A lot of good companies are going to see their stock prices whipsawed in the weeks and months to come, resulting in temporary “BUYING” opportunities if YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY are prepared to act quickly.

I also suggest you learn to shut out the “NOISE” that accompanies extreme VOLATILITY, which only stokes “FEAR” and invites “IRRATIONAL” decision-making. While it is much harder to do in practice than commit to in thought, this is a strategy that all successful long-term investors have learned.

Limit Downside “RISK”

If you find that impossible to do, then consider acquiring an "INSURANCE POLICY” for your portfolio by buying OUT-OF-THE-MONEY “PUT” OPTIONS on the S&P 500 Index. That way, you can CAP your potential losses to an acceptable level in the unlikely event of a stock market “MELTDOWN”.

That should help you sleep better at night and give you the resolve to ignore the daily ups and downs of the stock market. Yes, the cost of that “INSURANCE POLICY” will cut into your future returns, but the net result should still be far greater than bailing out of the market whenever Wall Street hits the “PANIC” button.

Most importantly, it will help you avoid the TRANSACTION COSTS and “PANICKED” trading losses that can leave your portfolio in shambles.

PEACE & BLESSINGS
Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Thursday, January 1^st, 2026

Be “CAUTIOUS” Of Adopting A New Year “RESOLUTION” Mindset...

This year (2026), I will operate with a more “PURPOSED-DRIVEN” approach.

“RESOLUTIONS” tend to behave like “WISHES”…

We “WISH” to get back in the gym.

We “WISH” we will eat better.

We “WISH” to say “no” more often…

We “WISH” we would use our time more carefully.

None of those goals are wrong… they are just INCOMPLETE!!!

“RESOLUTIONS” miss the “WHY”… the reminder.

And finding a “PURPOSE” supplies it.

The good news is that it’s easier to find one than you think.

Build a “FRAMEWORK” for this Year (2026)…

OVERSTANDING/UNDERSTANDING the “PURPOSE” behind something (a GOAL, a RESOLUTION, a new PURCHASE) creates a “FRAMEWORK”.

It gives you a quiet and ticking reminder of why you are getting out of bed early to move your body, or why you are choosing NOT to do something distracting or easy.

The “PURPOSE” will replay in your mind, repeatedly and because that thing matters so much to you, you will see the resolutions as part of that path.

A “PURPOSE” of the ATWWI is to uncover how markets truly work and translate that knowledge so that YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY can protect ourselves, seize opportunity, and think independently in a system that rewards confusion.

NOTE: There is a difference between a “PURPOSE” and a “MISSION”. A “PURPOSE” does not change and keeps you HONEST.

“MISSIONS” must change, and must keep you MOVING…

For 2026, the ATWWI “MISSION” linked to that ATWWI “PURPOSE” is pretty simple too: Navigate through volatile market regimes by focusing on how to protect capital first and act decisively when structure aligns, anomalies reward, and contrarian values emerge.

Everything Else Must Align

Most traders/investors do NOT actually have a “TRADING” problem.

They have a “PURPOSE” problem…

Ask someone why they trade/invest and you will usually hear an “OUTCOME”…

They “BEAT THE MARKET”.

They want to quit a job.

They want to get “P.A.I.D.”

The thing you will learn in BEHAVIORAL FINANCE classes, though, is that outcomes are “FRAGILE” and markets have an incredible ability to “STRESS-TEST” them immediately.

A defined “PURPOSE” answers a different question…

What role do markets play in the life you are trying to build???

If your “PURPOSE” is CAPITAL PRESERVATION across cycles, you do NOT chase LATE-STAGE MOMENTUM!!!

If your “PURPOSE” is STEADY INCOME with controlled “RISK”, you do NOT buy lottery tickets!!!

If your “PURPOSE” is ECONOMIC LIBERATION, you do NOT build conviction through headlines and news feeds and you do NOT chase the “EMOTIONAL” temperature of the room.

Once your market “PURPOSE” is clear, rules stop feeling “RESTRICTIVE” and start feeling “LOGICAL”.

Not chasing trades isn’t “DISCIPLINE”…

It’s a form of well-meaning “STRUCTURE”!!!

Your POSITION SIZING will NOT be viewed as “CAUTION”…

It becomes a “RESPECT FOR SURVIVAL”!!!

Walking away when you are exhausted is NOT “WEAKNESS”… It’s a form of “PROFESSIONALISM”…

Markets are very good at exploiting people who do NOT know why they are there.

Specifically, people without “PURPOSE”… just meandering through markets…

They reward “MOTION”, “NOISE”, and “OVERCONFIDENCE” just often enough to make those habits DANGEROUS!!!

So… it’s important to take the time to OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND your “PURPOSE” BEFORE you try to make market “RESOLUTIONS”...

A good “PURPOSE” for a first-time trader/investor might be something as simple as “to learn how markets operate while protecting my capital.”

Or… “To OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND RISK, POSITION SIZE, and MARKET BEHAVIOR before trying to extract returns.”

“PURPOSE” will keep you from trading/investing just to trade/invest.

People with decades of market knowledge and trading/investing experience face different challenges…

For the “EXPERTS”, markets aren’t confusing… they are “SEDUCTIVE”.

Experienced traders/investors might want their market “PURPOSE” to constrain “EGO”, preserve “OPTIONALITY”, and honor “TIME” as their primary edge.

I’ll tell you now as a trader/investor… my “CONSTITUTION” here is different than my “EDUCATOR” role, but it’s still clearly defined.

“To OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND and position for how LIQUIDITY, INCENTIVES, and POWER actually move, while remaining LIQUID enough to ADAPT when they change and get “P.A.I.D.”!!!

That’s it…

It defines my “RISK-REWARD” policies without using those terms.

Take the Time to Determine Your “PURPOSE”

Once you have defined that “PURPOSE” in the markets other things will start to show how they impact your life.

The same “CLARITY” that YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY seek to bring to markets has to exist in our HEALTH.

The same “PATIENCE” we talk about when trading/investing utilizing the ATWWI strategies/techniques has to show up in our HOMES.

Our resistance to “NOISE”, which is encouraged when trading/investing, has to apply to how we spend our TIME and where we focus our ATTENTION.

That COMMITMENT (or “RESOLUTION”) aligns as a structured decision about where our ATTENTION goes in a world of market “NOISE” and DISTRACTIONS…

YOU, ME, WE the “BELOVED” ATWWI FAMILY do NOT get to practice independence in one domain and chaos in another without eventually paying for it. They are NOT separate commitments.

They are the same “COMMITMENT”, expressed in different places.

When it all holds together, “RESOLUTIONS” stop feeling like “PROMISES” you are afraid to break. They start feeling like the next “NATURAL” step toward something better...

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Tuesday, December 9^th, 2025

Prepare To Monetize Holiday Retail Sales

The holiday rush has now officially kicked off, and many consumer-facing businesses will generate roughly one-fifth of their annual sales between after Thanksgiving and Christmas. The analysts are projecting U.S. spending to INCREASE about 4% over this pivotal stretch – topping the $1 trillion mark for the first time ever!!!

The early results look good, with online shoppers dropping a record-breaking $11.8 billion on Black Friday and even more on Cyber Monday. Total digital sales over the five-day period ROSE by nearly 8% to reach $44 billion.

Keep in mind, that doesn’t include physical brick-and-mortar stores. While mall and strip center foot traffic isn’t what it once was, the analysts estimates indicate about 130 million people braved the crowds for in-store Black Friday promotions, a 3% UPTICK.

Despite flattish volume, per-capita spending across all channels ROSE to $337 over that long weekend.

As you might imagine, Mastercard (MA) had some interesting front-row observations to share, noting that many of its cardholders have been shopping in the FASHION and JEWELRY departments.

Shopify (SHOP), whose software platform powers hundreds of global ecommerce brands, saw its merchants generate peak sales of $5+ million per minute!!!

Taken together, these snapshots paint a fairly clear mosaic of consumer “OPTIMISM”…

Pocketbooks remain wide open, despite stubborn inflation, labor market unease and other macro headwinds.

For now, the near-term outlook for the iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF (IYC) has brightened.

YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY will monetize the ongoing recent INCREASE  RETAIL sales via the positions indicated above AND our other various ATWWI "RETAIL" sector positions.

Considering, the retail consumer accounts for 70% of the U.S. GDP, you can OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND why individual shoppers are considered the “LOCOMOTIVES” of the U.S. economy.

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Saturday, December 6th, 2025

U.S. Markets Expect FED Rate "CUT" Next Week

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed little improvement in September (2025), with overall prices up 0.3% month over month and core prices (excluding food and energy) rising 0.2%. The report, delayed by the government shutdown, reinforces expectations that the FED will move toward a rate "CUT" next week, a development markets have been pricing in ahead of the central bank's decision.

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.